解决好一亿人在中西部地区就近城镇化是新时期城镇化的关键问题,而贵州地处西部是解决这一问题的重点区域。要保证这一问题顺利解决前提是对贵州省农民市民化成本的上限做出预估,贵阳市无疑是省内农民市民化上限的最好样本,贵阳的路子探好了,全省的问题就迎刃而解了。基于此,本文在总结和借鉴现有文献将农民市民化成本分为政府和私人成本的基础上,添加了企业成本。运用统计学的方法,按照不同类型人群与进入贵阳市不同区域进行分类,测算其市民化成本。同时,预测贵阳未来十几年的农民市民化人口规模以及市民化成本,并提出以产业选择人口,以公共服务均等化引导老城人口疏散和建立动态化的农民市民化监测体系的政策建议。
<<To solve the one hundred million people urbanization in Chinese central and western regions is a key problem of urbanization in the new period. Guizhou,located in the western region,is the key to solve this problem. To ensure the problem is solved smoothly,the premise is to estimate the upper limit cost of Guizhou Province Peasants citizenization. Undoubtedly,Guiyang City is the best sample in the whole province peasant citizenization ceiling. As soon as Guiyang achieves development,the province’s problems will be smoothly solved. Based on the above information,as well as summarizing and drawing lessons from the existing literature which split the cost of the peasants citizenization into basic government cost and private cost,we add a new essential factor:the cost of the enterprise. By using statistical methods,this article calculates the cost of the peasant citizenization according to the different types of people and different areas. At the same time,it predicts the following ten years of Guiyang citizenization population and cost,and presents some policy recommendations including selecting population through industry,guiding old town population evacuation through equalizing public services and establishing the dynamic monitoring system for peasants’ citizenization.
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