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谢伏瞻
    中国社会科学院学部委员,学部主席团主席,研究员,博士生导师。历任中国社会科学院院长、党组书记,国务院发展中心副主... 详情>>
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李培林
    男,汉族,出生于1955年5月,山东济南人,博士,研究员,全国人民代表大会社会建设委员会副主任委员,中国社会科学... 详情>>

    初级产品与工业制成品贸易条件变动趋势及其对中国的启示

    摘要

    对于初级产品与工业制成品的贸易条件变动趋势,一直以来争议颇多,其中认为初级产品与工业制成品的贸易条件在长期存在着恶化趋势的“普雷维什-辛格假说”长期占据主流地位。然而随着经济形势的变化,可以观察到一些初级产品的价格存在明显的上升趋势,而一些工业制成品的价格则在显著下降。本报告在前人研究的基础上对贸易条件,尤其是初级产品与工业制成品的贸易条件重新进行了理论和实证上的考察,探讨了贸易条件变动的决定机制和影响因素,并结合结构突变对分类的15组初级产品与工业制成品的贸易条件在1960~2012年的变动趋势进行了考察,直接和间接地证实了价值、供需对贸易条件的基础性影响。基于研究结果,本报告对中国的对外贸易政策提出了建议。

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    Abstract

    Changes in the terms of trade between primary commodities and manufactured goods has been a controversial topic in history,among which the “Prebisch - Singer hypothesis” which believes in a long-term deteriorating trend dominates the mainstream. However,with the changing economic situation,one can observes the phenomenon that the prices of some primary commodities enjoy an obviously quick rise,while some of the prices of manufactured goods suffer significant decline. Thus,on the basis of forefathers’ research,this paper makes a re-examination on the terms of trade,especially that between primary commodities and manufactured goods through theoretical and empirical approach,aiming to find out the patterns behind and the reality. Meanwhile,this paper classified for 15 set of the terms of trade between primary commodities and manufactured goods to examine their trends in the sample period of 1960-2012,which indirectly shows the fundamental influence of value and supply & demand on the terms of trade. Against analysis of the results,this paper presents suggestions for China’s international trade policy.

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    作者简介
    程伟帅:程伟帅,女,暨南大学经济学硕士,中国农业银行辽宁省分行。
    张捷:张捷,男,暨南大学经济学院教授,博士生导师,主要研究方向为国际经济、产业经济与可持续发展。
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