对于初级产品与工业制成品的贸易条件变动趋势,一直以来争议颇多,其中认为初级产品与工业制成品的贸易条件在长期存在着恶化趋势的“普雷维什-辛格假说”长期占据主流地位。然而随着经济形势的变化,可以观察到一些初级产品的价格存在明显的上升趋势,而一些工业制成品的价格则在显著下降。本报告在前人研究的基础上对贸易条件,尤其是初级产品与工业制成品的贸易条件重新进行了理论和实证上的考察,探讨了贸易条件变动的决定机制和影响因素,并结合结构突变对分类的15组初级产品与工业制成品的贸易条件在1960~2012年的变动趋势进行了考察,直接和间接地证实了价值、供需对贸易条件的基础性影响。基于研究结果,本报告对中国的对外贸易政策提出了建议。
<<Changes in the terms of trade between primary commodities and manufactured goods has been a controversial topic in history,among which the “Prebisch - Singer hypothesis” which believes in a long-term deteriorating trend dominates the mainstream. However,with the changing economic situation,one can observes the phenomenon that the prices of some primary commodities enjoy an obviously quick rise,while some of the prices of manufactured goods suffer significant decline. Thus,on the basis of forefathers’ research,this paper makes a re-examination on the terms of trade,especially that between primary commodities and manufactured goods through theoretical and empirical approach,aiming to find out the patterns behind and the reality. Meanwhile,this paper classified for 15 set of the terms of trade between primary commodities and manufactured goods to examine their trends in the sample period of 1960-2012,which indirectly shows the fundamental influence of value and supply & demand on the terms of trade. Against analysis of the results,this paper presents suggestions for China’s international trade policy.
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