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谢伏瞻
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李培林
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    人民币汇率、劳动力成本与广东谷物国际竞争力的关系研究

    摘要

    人民币升值和劳动力成本上升及其对中国经济所产生的负面影响是近年来社会各界普遍关注的热点问题。它们对于改善广东省谷物进出口贸易状况、提高广东省谷物的国际竞争力有一定的影响。本报告首先梳理了现阶段人民币汇率及劳动力成本的变动概况,分析了广东谷物国际竞争力的现状;然后运用协整检验模型,以广东谷物的贸易竞争力指数为被解释变量,以人民币实际有效汇率和广东劳动力成本等为解释变量,探讨了三者之间的关系。实证结果显示,人民币汇率、广东劳动力成本与广东谷物国际竞争力之间具有显著的负相关关系。即人民币升值1%,将会使广东谷物国际竞争力下降0。8424%;广东劳动力成本上升1%,将会使广东谷物国际竞争力下降7。3870%。据此,本报告提出了提高广东省谷物国际竞争力的对策建议。

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    Abstract

    In recent years,appreciation of the RMB and the rising of labor cost have become a hot topic in international community and academia,and one of the foci is their negative impact on Chinese economy. In the circumstance of RMB appreciation and the rising of labor cost,the research on the relationship between RMB exchange rate,labor cost and the international competitiveness of Guangdong grain is significant to improving the trade of Guangdong grain and international competitiveness of Guangdong grain. First of all,the author analyzes the current situation of RMB exchange rate,labor cost and the international competitiveness of Guangdong grain. To study the relationship between RMB exchange rate,labor cost and the international competitiveness of Guangdong grain,the author builds a co-integration model and make the trade competition index of Guangdong grain as explained variable. The explanatory variables are RMB real effective exchange rate,labor cost and so on. The result shows that there is a significant negative correlation between RMB exchange rate,labor cost and the international competitiveness of Guangdong grain. In other words,the international competitiveness of Guangdong grain will decline while RMB exchange rate and labor cost rise. At last,the author put forwards some suggestions to improve the international competitiveness of Guangdong grain depending on the research result.

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    作者简介
    林勇:林勇,男,教授,华南师范大学经济与管理学院,主要从事宏观经济学研究。
    郭楚莹:郭楚莹,女,广东省邮政规划研究设计院,主要从事情报搜集与项目规划工作。
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