自2012年底组阁以后,安倍晋三积极推行所谓的“安倍经济学”,期待在短时期内依靠货币和财政政策来使日本经济走出低谷,并为中长期实现经济增长、重建财政创造条件。然而,“安倍经济学”并非“对症”之举,即便可刺激经济短期复苏,但在长期内难以摆脱财政风险。同时,为了解决愈发严重的社保透支,日本还必须以消费税增税来填补财政“窟窿”,但此举又可能抵消短期经济刺激计划所带来的效果。日本经济的未来取决于经济结构改革的成败。
<<Since the December 2012 general election,which elected Shinzo Abe to his second term as prime minister,Japan launched so-called “Abenomics”. Its aim was to revive the sluggish economy with monetary policy and fiscal policy in a short time,and to guarantee the economic development and fiscal re-establishment in long term. However,“Abenomics” might bring about increase in sovereign debt risk in the long run. Meanwhile,Japan had to increase sales tax rate to fix the inequality of its fiscal system in order to deal with the social security’s cash-flow deficit. The increased sales tax would also offset the effect of the short-term economic stimulus plan. Therefore,Japan’s economy in the future would be heavily relied on the result of the structural reforms.
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