我国经济发展进入新常态,其中一个重要特征是经济增长由高速转向中高速。但也有人把新常态片面理解为经济增速一路下行。对此,应予以高度重视,因为经济增速一路下行将会给我国经济与社会发展带来一系列严重问题。本文分析了这些问题,并提出防止经济增速一路下行的对策,即寻找对于经济增长具有中长期持久推动的力量。“一带一路”、京津冀协同发展、长江经济带三大国家战略的实施,将会成为推动我国经济增长的中长期的持久力量。本文认为,2015年,我国经济增速的回落有望触底;2016~2020年,经济增速有望止跌企稳,并适度回升。
<<China’s economic development has entered a new normal,and an important characteristic among them is that economy growth rate from a high level to a medium-high-level. We should pay close attention to the attitude that treat new normal as decelerating of economy,because economy slow down will bring a series of serious problems to economic and social development in China. This paper analyses these issues and puts forward the countermeasures of preventing economy slow down,that is seeking the lasting driving force for economic growth. The implementation of the Silk Road Economic Belt and the 21st Century Maritime Silk Road,the coordinated development for Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region,and the three national strategies of the Yangtze River Economic Belt,will be long lasting power to promote China’s economic growth. This paper points out that China’s economic growth is expected to decline bottomed out in 2015 and is expected to stop falling and moderate rebound from 2016 to 2020.
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