中日领导人2014年11月实现在亚太经合组织(APEC)领导人非正式会议上的会见,是全年双边关系的标志性事件。会见是在中日达成四点原则共识的基础上得以进行的。共识与会见是内外条件作用、双方互动博弈的结果,在形式上缓和了近年来严重的中日政治僵局以及安全防务危机,但其后续的实效和走势仍有待审慎观察。同时,日本国内安全防卫政策调整、日美同盟军事合作升级、战略性外交持续推进等,不断给中日关系造成干扰,双方的互信不足和战略博弈呈现长期化及常态化趋势。2015年,中日关系既有利好因素,也有易燃隐患,双方能否在落实危机管控、妥善处理历史问题、培养战略互信、改善国民感情过程中实现良性互动,进一步稳定并改善关系,尚不容乐观。
<<The meeting of Sino-Japanese leaders in APEC summit in November is regarded as a landmark event of Sino-Japanese relations in the whole year of 2014. The meeting is based on the agreement of the four fundamental principles concerning the bilateral relations,and the consensus and meeting is the result of impact of various internal and external factors,as well as the interaction and gaming of both sides. The meeting contributes to relax the tension of Sino-Japanese relations,however,its aftermath effect and trend should be cautiously observed. In the context of the reform of Japanese defense and security policy,the upgrading of Japanese-U.S. alliance and the advancement of Japanese strategic diplomacy,there is a long-term trend of the lack of mutual trust and intensified strategic gaming between China and Japan. In 2015,there will be both positive and negative factors for the development of Sino-Japanese relations,with the outlook far from being optimistic concerning the improvement of Sino-Japanese relations through crisis management,dealing with historical issues properly,rebuilding strategic mutual trust and favorable sentiment between peoples.
<<Keywords: | Crisis ManagementSino-Japanese RelationsThe New NormalRelaxing Political TensionAgreement of the Four Fundamental PrinciplesStrategic Gaming |