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谢伏瞻
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    从危机走向复苏的美国经济给中国房地产的启示

    摘要

    本文从金融运行的角度系统分析了美国从次贷危机(2006~2008)到目前(2015)复苏的历程,希望能够从中发现可供中国房地产市场发展借鉴的积极因素。然而,深入分析的结果却表明,2015年的美国经济尽管可能会呈现给世界经济些许的“亮色”,但是,次级债务危机的“阴霾”至今仍未散尽。更深层面的分析发现,奥巴马总统任期的美国,并没有在金融创新与房地产监管中培育出一套成熟的房地产发展机制,因此仍难以应对下一次可能的危机,治理“次级债”机制的健全仍然需要假以时日。因此本文对于美国房地产领域乃至全球范围内的金融机构,它们对促使经济复苏所能够激发出来的正能量,笔者仅仅持审慎乐观态度。更为重要的是,在全球经济的大格局中,考虑到中国经济中的制造业和商业在全球实体经济中所占的体量之大,已经使得中国在庞大美元投资和其他长、短期投资博弈中深受美国经济与金融决策的影响,因此在本文尾声,笔者还探讨了“后危机”时代那些促使美国复苏的因素给中国的房地产市场带来的可能影响。

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    Abstract

    The subprime mortgage lending crisis started in the United States in 2006,spiraling out of control in 2007,leading to a financial breakdown of banks and financial systems worldwide by 2008. This global event is often referred to as the “Housing Bubble” that burst(see,Greenspan. In the past seven years,there has been some noticeable improvement in the financial situation and it remains to be seen if any of the measures taken to plug the financial drain will have longer term,and more problematic implications. However,at the moment,we are seeing a reasonable recovery in the financial sector. This paper attempts to explore the measures that appear to have had a positive role in the economic recovery of the real estate market and related institutions in the United States and worldwide. More importantly,we attempt to identify what such measures would imply for the Real Estate market in China. In the context of the global economy,China is heavily impacted by economic and financial decision-making of the United States due to the ownership of a large pool of dollars and other short-term as well as long-term investments by global entities in the manufacturing and commercial aspects of the Chinese economy.

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    作者简介
    陈北:陈北,金融学博士,中国社会科学院世界经济与政治研究所chenbei@cass.org.cn。
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