您好,欢迎来到皮书数据库!
热点推荐: 双循环
更多>> 课题组动态
更多>> 皮书作者
谢伏瞻
    中国社会科学院学部委员,学部主席团主席,研究员,博士生导师。历任中国社会科学院院长、党组书记,国务院发展中心副主... 详情>>
蔡 昉
    中国社会科学院国家高端智库首席专家,学部委员,学部主席团秘书长,研究员,博士生导师。先后毕业于中国人民大学、中国... 详情>>
李培林
    男,汉族,出生于1955年5月,山东济南人,博士,研究员,全国人民代表大会社会建设委员会副主任委员,中国社会科学... 详情>>

    2014年北京存量房市场分析及2015年展望

    摘要

    2014年房地产行业正在经历着一场革命,各项宏观指标均高位回落,开发商融资成本上升叠加经济下行,新房交易持续低迷。二手房市场在限购和信贷收紧影响下,2014年成交大幅萎缩,跌至近6年最低水平,仅高于2008年经济危机爆发那年。房地产目前仍作为我国经济的支柱性产业,受宏观经济下行持续压力影响,2014年启动四轮救市、政策托市,房地产市场在四季度趋好发展。2014年8月,全国大部分城市开始限购松绑,政策风向开始出现转机,由此开启第一轮救市。第二轮救市始于“9·30新政”,房地产刺激政策达到高潮,二手网签迎来小高峰。而10月9日全国公积金政策放松以及各地方刺激政策出台,开始第三轮微调政策。市场成交量在10月冲高后,在11月略显回落,房价止跌平稳。而年末降息重磅政策,是第四轮救市政策,使得市场预期再次好转。四季度在“9·30新政”叠加降息利好影响下,房价平稳,年末交易创小高峰。由于销售市场回落,租赁市场也失去了持续上涨的动力。租赁房源持续增加,租赁需求保持稳定,2014年租金涨幅创近5年来新低。

    <<
    >>

    Abstract

    In 2014,the real estate industry was experiencing a revolution,various macroeconomic indexes highs fallback,developers financing costs rise while the economic downturn,new home transactions remain in the doldrums. Second-hand housing market in the restrictions and credit tightening impact,turnover declined significantly in 2014,fell to its lowest level for nearly six years,just above 2008 economic crisis. Real estate is still as a pillar industry of China’s economy,affected by the macro-economic downward continuous pressure,started four bailout in 2014,policies to prop up the real estate market in the fourth quarter,getting better and better development. August 2014,most of the city began to relax its restrictions,policy direction began to turn,which opened the first round of bailout. The second round of bailout began from the “930” New Deal,the real estate stimulus the market,Second-hand housing used net signed usher small peak. The October 9th,National Fund and local policy easing stimulus policies began the third round of policy fine-tuning. After the October market turnover shot up,dropped slightly in November,prices climb steadily. At the end of year,heavy rate cuts policy is the fourth round of bailout policies,the market is expected to pick up again. In the fourth quarter,under the positive influence of “930” New Deal and rate cuts,price stability,creating a small peak at the end of the year. Due to falling sales market,the rental market has lost momentum continued to rise. Rental housing continued to increase,leasing demand remained stable,in 2014 rent increase in nearly five-year low.

    <<
    >>
    作者简介
    靳瑞欣:靳瑞欣,北京中原地产研究部经理。
    <<
    >>
    相关报告