2014年前三季度香港GDP仅小幅增长2。4%,低于市场普遍预期的3%以上,主要受到外需复苏速度较预期缓慢、内需放缓较预期严重以及“占领”运动三大因素的影响。2015年全球经济和贸易在“新平庸”状态下仍会有所改善,其中美国经济将是新亮点,欧洲经济仍将蹒跚而行,中国经济在“新常态”下将加快结构调整提升步伐,因而香港外需总体上会略有好转,不平衡状况也将有所缓和;香港内需则因本地楼市有机会进入调整周期以及政治问题将继续放慢。预计2015年香港GDP将上升2。8%,略高于2014年的2。2%,但仍低于趋势增长水平;通胀仍会持续向下,这一轮由楼价带动的通胀周期将进入尾声。
<<Hong Kong’s GDP growth came in at 2.4% in 3Q14,underperforming the market’s expectations for a 3.0% gain. It is mainly result from tepid recovery of external demand,lower-than-expected slack in domestic demand and uncertainty arising from “Occupy Central” movement. The global economy and international trade are expected to improve moderately under the “New Mediocre” in 2015,with a number of new features:The U.S. will become a bright spot,the Euro-zone will remain sluggish and China will accelerate economic restructuring under the “New Normal”. Hong Kong will benefit from the rebound in external demand while imbalance will be ease off. However,the possible real estate market downturn and the political issues may post as headwinds to Hong Kong’s domestic demand. We therefore,expect that Hong Kong’s economy will grow 2.8% in 2015,stronger than the 2.2% increase this year but still weaker than the potential growth rate;Hong Kong’s inflation may remain slow and the current inflation cycle being driven by property prices is nearing an end.
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