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谢伏瞻
    中国社会科学院学部委员,学部主席团主席,研究员,博士生导师。历任中国社会科学院院长、党组书记,国务院发展中心副主... 详情>>
蔡 昉
    中国社会科学院国家高端智库首席专家,学部委员,学部主席团秘书长,研究员,博士生导师。先后毕业于中国人民大学、中国... 详情>>
李培林
    男,汉族,出生于1955年5月,山东济南人,博士,研究员,全国人民代表大会社会建设委员会副主任委员,中国社会科学... 详情>>

    南海问题的四大变局

    摘要

    2014年南海局势进一步复杂化,油气资源开发升温、国际仲裁介入、美国对海洋制度的维护以及中国维权力量增长是四类主要的变革。随着周边国家开发南海的技术能力和形式更加多元化,国内经济社会发展升级,南海潜藏的权益也日渐得到重视,带动了区域外跨国公司以及大国的介入和干预。稳定南海局势至少要两手准备,不能只是单纯地希望和解,也要准备通过各种手段防止冲突。更为重要的是,要对和平解决南海争端保持信心,从长远角度探索各方“多赢”的局面。

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    Abstract

    The South China Sea issue has became more and more complex with the interaction of four forces. Oil and gas resources competition,international arbitration,U.S. intervention and China’s power growth leads international anxious to the peaceful resolution. At the same time,technique factors and domestic social economic development require neighboring countries pay more attention to the South China Sea. To some extent,the international corporation was invited into this region and involved into the disputes. Outside forces,especially the United States,were afraid of the China’s rise and its power expansion in this region. They send strong signals to urge claimers use non force solutions. Under the new situations,China should take two ways. On the one hand,it is possible to deal with it through negotiation. On the other hand,China still needs improve various measures to control conflict escalation. The most important lesson needs to keep in mind is that we should maintain confidence on the peaceful solution. We should take a long perspective to create a “multi-wins” on the South China Sea Issues.

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    作者简介
    钟飞腾:钟飞腾,中国社会科学院亚太与全球战略研究院副研究员。
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