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    2014~2015年世界经济形势分析与展望

    摘要

    2014年世界经济维持了上年度的缓慢复苏,同时经济增长格局分化显著。发达经济体与发展中经济体双速增长态势依旧,但速差明显收窄。在发达经济体中,美国经济复苏巩固,欧元区经济低位运行,日本经济随着“安倍经济学”的效能减退而与其增长目标仍相差较远,进而发达经济体货币政策出现分化。在新兴市场与发展经济体中,巴西和俄罗斯经济出现大幅下滑,几近零增长,中国虽增速放慢但仍维持较高增长速度,印度经济增速则有所提升。全球劳动力市场总体改善,物价稳中有降,但各经济体表现不尽相同,部分经济体开始面临通缩风险。政治经济因素联动引致全球大宗商品价格急剧下滑,全球贸易进入低速增长通道,对外直接投资增长亦缺乏动力,债务水平仍处高位。尽管全球治理与区域经济合作步履蹒跚,但仍取得了一些新的进展。展望2015年,主要发达经济体货币政策、主要新兴经济体改革成效、全球金融系统潜在风险、地缘政治经济走势、突发性疾病与自然灾害等诸多问题值得关注。整体而言,预计全球经济增长将会出现小幅上扬。

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    Abstract

    The world economy maintains a slow recovery in 2014,and the economic growth rates among countries differentiate significantly. The developed and developing economies experiences a double speed growth,but its difference narrows. The US economic recovery consolidates while the euro zone economy operates at a low level and Japan’s growth is still far away from its target because the effectiveness of “Abenomics” decreases. Thus,the monetary policies of the developed economies differentiate. Brazil and Russia fall sharply with an almost zero growth while China remains a high level growth even with a slowed growth rate and India’s economic growth is improved. The overall global labor market improves comparatively. The consumer price flats with a slight decline but all economies perform in variety. Some economies begin to face the risk of deflation. The linkage of the political and economic factors causes a sharp decline in global commodity prices. The global trade enters a low growth track while the foreign direct investment lacks motivations. The global debt level is still high. Despite of various difficulties,the global economic governance and regional cooperation still made some new progresses. In 2015,the world economy will be influenced by many factors such as the monetary policies of advanced economies and their spillover effects,the reform results of major emerging economies,the potential risks of global financial system,geopolitical economic trends,paroxysmal diseases and natural disasters,and so on. The global economic growth is expected to rise slightly.

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    作者简介
    张宇燕:张宇燕,中国社会科学院世界经济与政治研究所研究员、所长。
    徐秀军:徐秀军,中国社会科学院世界经济与政治研究所国际政治经济学研究室副研究员。作者感谢孙杰研究员和高海红研究员的有益建议。
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