2014年,外围环境依然充满挑战,加上旅游输出减少以及内部需求放缓所拖累,整体经济首三季虽仍持续温和扩张,但增速较2013年稍慢。短期内,各种不明朗因素继续困扰环球经济前景,包括各国央行的未来货币政策取向未明、欧元区的结构性问题令其经济复苏呆滞、日本经济在4月调高销售税后明显转弱,加上世界多处地缘政局紧张等,都为全球经济前景蒙上阴影。幸而,内地经济仍在合理区间运行,保持平稳增长,加上其他亚洲地区经济基本面普遍强韧,为香港经济带来支持,预料香港经济在2014年全年温和增长2。2%。通胀方面,由于进口价格升幅温和,租金压力缓和,以及工资增长平稳,通胀的上行风险在短期内仍然有限。特区政府会密切留意物价走势,特别是通胀对低收入人士的影响。
楼市气氛自2014年第二季起转趋活跃,资产泡沫风险仍然未除,特区政府已推出了连串措施令楼市健康平稳发展,确保宏观经济和金融系统稳定。展望2015年,以上谈及的多种外围因素仍会影响香港的经济表现。不过,内地经济持续发展所提供的机遇,将会继续为香港经济带来支持。
<<In 2014,the external environment remains challenging,the overall economy in the first three quarters is still continuing to expand at a moderate growth,but slightly slower than last year. The mainland economy,Coupled with other Asian area economic fundamentals,maintains a steady growth,and bring support for Hongkong’s economy. It is expected that Hongkong’s economic growth rate is at 2.2% this year. As to inflation,because of import prices increase moderately,rent pressure eases,and wage growth is steady,upside risks to inflation are still limited in the short term. Property market has become active since the second quarter of 2014,the risks of asset bubbles still remain,and the SAR government has launched a series of measures to make the property market develop healthily and steadily,to ensure a stable macroeconomic and financial system. Outlook in 2015,many external factors mentioned above will affect the performance of Hongkong’s economy. However,sustained economic development opportunities provided by the mainland will continue to bring support for Hongkong’s economy.
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