本文基于Dirichlet成分分析方法构建了中国金融状况指数FCI,检验结果显示,该指数不仅能有效地反映我国货币市场运行状况,而且作为先行指标,FCI还表现出对CPI和GDP具有较强预测能力,适合作为制定货币政策的参考指标。本文进一步利用无限状态马尔可夫区制模型度量了我国金融状况指数保持自身稳定状态的惯性,结果表明,我国的金融状况指数的惯性总体上长期保持稳固,虽然受我国货币政策转向与金融危机影响FCI出现过三次短期波动,但其在2002年下半年、2007年末与2009年末表现出较高的惯性水平。
<<This paper constructs financial conditions index(FCI)in China based on Dirichlet component analysis method. Test results shows that,the index can not only effectively reflect the running status of money market in China,but also show strong predictive ability on CPI and GDP as a leading indicator of FCI,and it is a suitable reference index of monetary policy. In order to maintain its stable state of inertia,we use infinite state Markov model to measure China’s financial status index. The results show that the overall inertia of China’s financial condition index remains firm in the long-term. Although there are three times of short-term fluctuations because of the monetary policy shifts and the impact of the financial crisis to FCI,China’s financial condition shows a high level of inertia in the first half of 2002,at the end of 2007 and the end of 2009.
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