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谢伏瞻
    中国社会科学院学部委员,学部主席团主席,研究员,博士生导师。历任中国社会科学院院长、党组书记,国务院发展中心副主... 详情>>
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李培林
    男,汉族,出生于1955年5月,山东济南人,博士,研究员,全国人民代表大会社会建设委员会副主任委员,中国社会科学... 详情>>

    2014年工业增长速度预测及工业景气指数与预警指数分析报告

    摘要

    2014年,我国工业生产增速明显回落,工业投资增速继续放缓,工业产品出口保持适度增长,工业企业盈利能力持续改善,工业品供需矛盾有所加剧,工业用电量明显下滑。工业增长存在以下有利因素:宏观调控更加及时,稳定的就业和物价形势使得消费平稳增长,多项改革措施有力促进新型企业和新业态的成长,生产经营活动仍处于扩张区间。然而也存在以下不利因素:投资持续下行,去库存化过程中企业生产空间受到限制,国外需求增长不足,企业经营出现一定困难。根据工业经济景气合成指数分析,预测全年规模以上工业增加值增速为8。6%左右。

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    Abstract

    In 2014,China’s industrial growth is apparent fallout,industrial investment growth continue to slow down,export of industrial production maintains in moderate rate,profitability of industrial enterprises sustains to improve,the contradiction between supply and demand of the industrial products becomes intensified,and industrial electricity consumption declines significantly. Advantages as following exist in industrial growth,such as,more prompt macroeconomic regulation and control,fine consumption condition led from the stable employment situation and steady price situation,reform measures effectively promoting the enterprise growth,expansion of the production and business. However there are also some adverse factors,such as,continually downward investment,restricted enterprise production space during destocking,the insufficient foreign demand because of bad world economic situation,and problems in enterprise management. According to the analysis of the synthetic index of industrial prosperity,expectedly in 2015,annual industrial output growth would reach around 8.6%.

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