This paper analyzes the current economic situation，pointing out that the downward pressure on the economy did not reduce，but increasing. The paper puts forward the future economic trends（2015-2020），there are four possibilities：First，all the way down. The second is to continue to go flat. Third，return to more than 10% growth. Fourth，on the basis of the midline of the reasonable range，make the economic normal fluctuations within the reasonable interval between the upper and lower limits. This article argues for the fourth possibility and makes policy recommendations. To build a new type of long-term development of China’s economy，that is to carry out a new type of people-centered urbanization，combined with major regional development of the Yangtze River economic belt，the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei economic belt，the Silk Road economic belt. Finally，the paper points out that there is a larger space for the development of new type of urbanization in China，the current decline in China’s economic growth should be a gradual process of wave type，but should not be “substantial” down the steps.