近年来,伴随社会办医政策的利好,民营医院的发展引起了社会资本投资的巨大关注。然而,作者对我国2000~2013年的宏观卫生数据进行分析发现,卫生总费用的增长显示尽管我国医疗卫生市场容量越来越大,但个人支出卫生费用呈现不断萎缩的现象,现金支付比重相对降低,提示民营医疗相对市场增长有限。随后作者对国际宏观卫生数据进行收敛分析,发现尽管不同国家间经济水平和卫生体制差别较大,但各国人均卫生费用均存在收敛,即各国卫生费用随时间变化终将趋于一致,国际筹资方式的变化趋势也反映了卫生费用的个人支付部分将随着国家卫生系统的完善而逐渐缩小比重,维持在一定规模。这意味着卫生费用的上涨空间是有限的,应理性看待民营医疗市场的增长。
<<In recent years,the development of private hospitals sparked huge attention of social capital investmentwith the specialized policies.
However,the authors use the analysis of the macro health data of 2000-2013 found out that although the total health expenditure was kept on increasing,but the private expenditure decreased. That means the relative market share was limited. Later the author use the international health data to apply convergence analysis and found out that the expenditure per capita in each country was convergent,namely national health expenditure will eventually converge over time. Also the changing trend of international financing styles reflects the private expenditure would shrink its proportion and maintain at a certain scale accompanied with the improvement of the nation’s health system. This means that the rise of health expenditures was limited and we should rationally look at the growth of the private healthcare market.
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