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谢伏瞻
    中国社会科学院学部委员,学部主席团主席,研究员,博士生导师。历任中国社会科学院院长、党组书记,国务院发展中心副主... 详情>>
蔡 昉
    中国社会科学院国家高端智库首席专家,学部委员,学部主席团秘书长,研究员,博士生导师。先后毕业于中国人民大学、中国... 详情>>
李培林
    男,汉族,出生于1955年5月,山东济南人,博士,研究员,全国人民代表大会社会建设委员会副主任委员,中国社会科学... 详情>>

    中国能源安全形势与展望

    摘要

    能源安全问题直接关系着一个国家的政治稳定、经济发展、社会和谐、环境改善,也关系着其在国际上的话语权和外交空间。能源安全从来没有一个通用的解决方案,每个国家必须基于本国国情来解决自身的能源和环境问题。尽管当前中国能源安全正面临着前所未有的“内忧”和“外患”,但总体上并未恶化到完全受制于人的最危险境地。如果能源战略布局合理、科技创新方向明确、政策支持及时给力,中国完全可能开创出一条新道路,即建立起独立自主的、经济的、清洁的能源安全保障体系来支撑工业化建设的巨大能源需求。如何解决中国能源安全的“内忧”和“外患”,存在着很大的争议。本文结合中国国情,对“中国需要什么样的能源消费总量控制”“核电是解决温室气体减排和雾霾污染的出路吗?”“煤制天然气真的是清洁能源替代利用方式吗?”“是寄望页岩气还是应大力开发唾手可得的生物燃气?”这几个事关“中国能源安全战略走向”的重大问题进行了深入剖析,对当前一些影响甚广但却“似是而非”的观点进行了澄清,对当前不合理的能源政策进行了质疑,并就中国如何抓住机遇尽早走上一条稳妥的、环境损害和经济代价最小的能源发展道路,提出了当前最紧要的任务和相关政策建议。

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    Abstract

    Energy security is of most importance to a county’s political stability,economy growth,social harmony,environment improvement,as well as its bargaining power in foreign affairs. There is never a universal solution in the world. Every country must deal with its energy and environment issues based on its specific conditions. Although facing unprecedented “inside challenges” and “outside threats” at the moment,energy security in China is still not in the utmost urgent and risky situation which has to be totally subjected to foreign countries. If with rational energy strategy and arrangement,right direction of science and technology innovations and timely support of policy motivation,China is very likely to create a new path to meet the huge energy demand of industrialization by way of establishing an independent,cost-effective and clean energy supply system. There is a widely debate on how to cope with the “inside challenges” and “outside threats”. Based on the in-depth analysis on the specific conditions of China,the article will explore several important and hot issues which are key to China’s Energy Security Strategy,such as “What kind of maximum energy consumption control do we need”,“Is nuclear power the way out for China to reduce Green House gas emission and solve the smog pollution”,“Is Synthetics Nature gas really the way of the clean energy alternative” and “What should we count on to meet the demand of natural gas,shell gas or biogas”. Aiming at clearing up some widely spread but wrong conclusions in the energy field,the article will question some unreasonable policies currently,and then put forward the urgent tasks and policy recommendations for China on how to take opportunity and shift to a reliable,more environment-friendly and cost-effective energy supply mix as soon as possible.

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    作者简介
    王亦楠:王亦楠,国务院发展研究中心研究员。
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