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谢伏瞻
    中国社会科学院学部委员,学部主席团主席,研究员,博士生导师。历任中国社会科学院院长、党组书记,国务院发展中心副主... 详情>>
蔡 昉
    中国社会科学院国家高端智库首席专家,学部委员,学部主席团秘书长,研究员,博士生导师。先后毕业于中国人民大学、中国... 详情>>
李培林
    男,汉族,出生于1955年5月,山东济南人,博士,研究员,全国人民代表大会社会建设委员会副主任委员,中国社会科学... 详情>>

    洪都拉斯

    摘要

    2009年,因一场修宪公投引发军事政变,洪都拉斯时任总统塞拉亚被罢免,临时政府上台执政,国内政局陷入动荡。被罢免总统与临时政府之间展开了“博弈”,最终塞拉亚强行回国,双方几经周折后达成协议:同意如期举行大选且大选具有合法性,塞拉亚是否复职由议会表决。议会最终否决了塞拉亚复职的决定。在总统选举中,国民党总统候选人赢得大选并将于2010年1月就职。因遭受国际金融危机和国内政治危机的双重冲击,洪都拉斯经济出现自1999年以来的首次衰退,2009年的经济增长率为-3%。两极分化、不平等、就业不足、暴力犯罪活动等问题是洪都拉斯社会领域中的突出问题。政变后上台的临时政府陷入“外交困境”,与委内瑞拉等美洲玻利瓦尔联盟成员、巴西和阿根廷等国关系紧张;预计新政府执政后,洪都拉斯修复与上述国家的关系尚需时日,而与美国的关系将得到改善。

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    Abstract

    President Zelaya was ousted in a coup triggered by a referendum on Constitutional Reform and an interim government assumed the rein of the country in political chaos. Then a game went on between the ousted president and the interim government. It ended in Zelaya’s forced repatriation to reach such a deal through zigzags:the scheduled election was considered legitimate and the restoration of Zelaya’s presidency was up to the Congress. The Congress rejected Zelaya’s restoration eventually. The consequent election was won by a candidate from the National Party (Partido Nacional),Ricardo Maduro who was sworn in on January 1,2010. Shocked by international financial crisis and domestic political crisis,Honduras’s economy experienced the first recession in 2009 since 1999 and reported a negative growth rate of -3%.Disparity,inequality,underemployment and violent crimes are protruding problems on the social scene. The interim government sank into Diplomatic Plight as its relations with member countries of the Bolivian Alliance for the Peoples of Our America (Alianza Bolivariana para los Pueblos de Nuestra América),Brazil and Argentina became tense. It’s expected that the new government elect will need time to repair its ties with mentioned countries and its relationship with the US will turn for the better.

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    作者简介
    杨志敏:杨志敏,中国社会科学院拉丁美洲研究所经济室副主任,副研究员,世界经济专业经济学博士。
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