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谢伏瞻
    中国社会科学院学部委员,学部主席团主席,研究员,博士生导师。历任中国社会科学院院长、党组书记,国务院发展中心副主... 详情>>
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李培林
    男,汉族,出生于1955年5月,山东济南人,博士,研究员,全国人民代表大会社会建设委员会副主任委员,中国社会科学... 详情>>

    2011~2012年拉美经济形势:持续增长、增速减缓

    摘要

    2011年拉美和加勒比国家克服了外部经济环境变化的不利影响,在宏观经济相对稳定的基础上,保持了经济增长的趋势,国内生产总值增长4。3%,人均国内生产总值增长3。2%。尽管增速放缓,但仍高于近10年的平均增长率;财政形势有所改善,政府债务继续得到控制,通胀仍在可控范围之内,商品进出口有新的突破,但经常项目逆差未能扭转;外国直接投资创下新高。拉美和加勒比经济发展中存在的问题不容忽视,通货膨胀持续走高将使未来经济政策调整的余地收窄,资金流失的风险将有可能对一些国家经济产生冲击,结构性调整的压力在加大,外部不确定因素的影响将变得更加复杂,欧债危机将通过对外贸易、侨汇和金融市场影响拉美实体经济。在此背景下,2012年拉美和加勒比经济增速将进一步放缓。 <<
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    Abstract

    In 2011, the Latin America and Caribbean overcame the adverse effect of external changes in economic situation. It maintained the trend of economic growth on the basis of relative stable of macro economy. The Gross Domestic Product (GDP) scored a growth of 4.3% and the GDP per capita, 3.2 percent. Although the growth rate slowed down, it was slightly above the average growth rate of the past ten years. The financial situation was improved. The government debt and inflation were still under control. The import and export of goods made a new breakthrough, but the current account deficit was not remedied. The foreign direct investment reached a new level. A number of problems in the economic development cannot be ignored. The inflation was going higher, which made it difficult to adjust the economic policy in the future. The capital account outflow might impose sharp impacts on some regional countries. Therefore, the pressure of structural adjustment was increasing and the influence of external uncertain factors became more complicated. The European debt crisis affected the substance economy of the Latin America by foreign trade, overseas remittance and financial market. Thus, the economic growth in the region is expected to further slow down in 2012. <<
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    作者简介
    吴国平:1984~1986年就读于墨西哥经济研究和教学中心经济和国际政治专业,获经济和国际政治硕士学位。现为中国社会科学院拉丁美洲研究所所长助理、研究员、博士生导师、经济研究室主任、社科院重点学科拉美经济学科主持人、中国经济社会理事会理事。
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