2009年全球经济出现了自1960年以来首次负增长,而且幅度很可能超过1%。到目前为止,美国次贷危机及金融危机已大体上得到控制。但是鉴于目前还存在着诸多不确定性,故断言2010年世界经济全面摆脱衰退进入复苏还为时尚早,全球经历强劲复苏还需要满足一系列条件。本文将分别讨论全球增长、就业、贸易、投资、金融、石油及其他初级产品等6个领域,并在结论部分给出对2009年世界经济形势的总体判断和对2010年的综合展望。
<<In 2009,the global economy has the negative growth for the first time since 1960,and the range is possible to be over 1%. So far,the American subprime mortgage crisis and the financial crisis have been under the control on the whole. But,in view of the fact that there are also many uncertainties at present,we considered that,it is still too early for the world economy to comprehensively get rid of the depression and to recover in 2010,and the whole world still needs a series of conditions to experience the strong recovery. This paper will discuss global growth,employment,trade,investment,finance,petroleum and other primary products and so on,and makes an overall judgment on the world economic situation in 2009 and a comprehensive forecast in 2010 in the conclusion part.
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