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谢伏瞻
    中国社会科学院学部委员,学部主席团主席,研究员,博士生导师。历任中国社会科学院院长、党组书记,国务院发展中心副主... 详情>>
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李培林
    男,汉族,出生于1955年5月,山东济南人,博士,研究员,全国人民代表大会社会建设委员会副主任委员,中国社会科学... 详情>>

    香港经济近况和展望(2009~2010年)

    摘要

    2009年整体经济状况显示,香港第一季度按年大幅倒退7。8%。这是香港经济自1998年第三季度饱受亚洲金融危机严重打击以来最大的跌幅。但受惠于内地经济增长加快,以及各先进经济体系的下行压力有所缓减,香港经济在第二季度出现反弹,跌幅3。8%。经季节性调整与对上季度的比较,扭转环比连续四个季度的收缩。随着环球经济渐渐触底,以及内地重回较快增长,香港经济的外部环节料会在2009年下半年续有改善。考虑到政府在5月公布的新一轮缓解措施的提振效应,全年的实质本地生产总值现时估计将会收缩3。5%~4。5%。

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    Abstract

    In 2009,the whole economic position showed that Hong Kong largely regressed 7.8% in the first quarter. This was the biggest drop range since Hong Kong’s economy fully suffered the serious impact of Asian financial crisis in the third quarter of 1998. But benefiting from the speeding-up of interior economic growth as well as the reduction of the downward pressure of various advanced economic systems,Hong Kong economy had bounce in the second quarter,and the drop range was 3.8%. After the seasonal adjustment and in comparison with previous quarter,the continual contraction for four quarters of month-on-month growth has been turned back. Along with the world economy touches ground gradually,as well as the interior economy returns quick growth,it is expected that the exterior links of Hong Kong economy will continue to improve in the second half of 2009. Considering the inspiring effect of new round of mitigation measure issued by the government in May,it is estimated that all-year real local total output value will have constrict of 3.5%-4.5%.

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    作者简介
    陈李蔼伦:
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