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谢伏瞻
    中国社会科学院学部委员,学部主席团主席,研究员,博士生导师。历任中国社会科学院院长、党组书记,国务院发展中心副主... 详情>>
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李培林
    男,汉族,出生于1955年5月,山东济南人,博士,研究员,全国人民代表大会社会建设委员会副主任委员,中国社会科学... 详情>>

    台湾经济动向(2009~2010年)

    摘要

    2009年上半年台湾经济形势依然严峻,未经季节调整第一、二季度经济增长率仍有10。13%及7。54%的衰退。自6月起根据经济主管部门发布的数据显示,国际贸易逐渐畅旺、物价波动趋缓,但民间消费支出保守、投资持续低迷,公共支出是经济增长的主力支撑。评估两岸签署ECFA对台湾经济之影响,依据中华经济研究院以GTAP模型研究显示,签署后对台湾GDP、出进口、贸易条件、社会福利均呈现正成长,整体经济成长率将增加1。65%~1。72%、总就业人数将增加25。7万~26。3万人,对总体经济有明显正面效益。

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    关键词: ECFA台湾经济衰退

    Abstract

    In the first half of 2009,Taiwan economic situation was still stern,without seasonal adjustment,the economic growth rate still had depression of 10.13% and 7.54% respectively in the first and second quarters. But since June,the data issued by the competent department of economy showed that,the international trade has gone prosperous and the price fluctuation has slowed down gradually,but the private consumption expenditure is still conservative,the investment keeps downturn,and the public expenditure is still the main support of economic growth. Through the assessment of the influence of ECFA signed Cross-Taiwan straits to the Taiwan economy,the studies of Chung-Hua Institution for Economic Research based on the GTAP model showed that,after signing ECFA,Taiwan’s GDP,import and export,terms of trade and social welfare all have presented positive growth,the whole economic growth rate will increase 1.65%-1.72%,total employed population will increase 257000-263000,which have obvious positive benefit to the overall economy.

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    作者简介
    王俪容:王俪容,中华经济研究院经济展望中心研究员兼主任
    彭素玲:彭素玲,中华经济研究院经济展望中心研究员。
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