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    基于CASS指数的重庆季度经济运行情况分析

    摘要

    作为西部开发的重镇,在《国务院关于推进重庆市统筹城乡改革和发展的若干意见》以及中央“扩内需、保增长”等政策的刺激下,重庆市经济加快复苏,增长速度明显回升。但增长质量处于较低水平,重庆经济运行的结构的合理性不够,还需要加快产业结构调整的步伐,促进产业结构向合理化、高级化的方向发展。受国际金融危机影响的现实运行状况是增速放缓,下行压力依然存在;出口不畅导致对外经济形势严峻;国有投资增长迅猛但非国有投资能力下降;产业结构不合理,增长结构尚需优化;价格持续走低但需求不旺。预计2009年下半年及2010年重庆经济仍将保持中位及偏高位运行和增长的态势。

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    Abstract

    As a strategic place in the development of West China,under the stimulation of “Certain Opinions of the State Council on Advancing Chongqing’s Unified Urban and Rural Reform and Development” as well as the policy of “expanding the domestic demand,guaranteeing the growth” of the Central Committee etc.,the economy Chongqing City has quickened to recover,and the growth speed has risen obviously. But the growth quality is still in a low level,Chongqing’s rationality of economic operation structure is insufficient,therefore it also needs to mend the pace of industrial restructuring,and to promote the industrial structure to go to rationalization and high-quality. Under the impact of international financial crisis,the growth speed has slowed down,and the downward pressure still exists;The obstructed export makes the foreign economic situation stern;The state-owned investment grows swiftly and violently,but the non-state-owned investment ability drops;The industrial structure is unreasonable,and the growth structure needs to optimize;The price stays at a low level unceasingly,but the demand is not intense. It is estimated that Chongqing’s economy will still maintain mid- and somewhat high-level operation and growth in the second half of 2009 and in 2010.

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    作者简介
    王崇举:
    陈新力:
    黄应绘:
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