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谢伏瞻
    中国社会科学院学部委员,学部主席团主席,研究员,博士生导师。历任中国社会科学院院长、党组书记,国务院发展中心副主... 详情>>
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李培林
    男,汉族,出生于1955年5月,山东济南人,博士,研究员,全国人民代表大会社会建设委员会副主任委员,中国社会科学... 详情>>

    房地产2009年形势与2010年展望

    摘要

    在经历了土地、住宅销售和其价格的轮番上涨之后,2008年第四季度到2009年第一季度开始陷入低谷;但从第二季度开始,土地及住宅价格又开始上涨,而到第二季度末,销售增长放慢。中国高房价的形成,主要原因是供给相对小和需求相对大,这与对住宅建设用地供应的行政和计划控制,土地供给市场的政府寡头垄断,地方政府将几十年土地收益一次性收支的房地产财政,以及对住宅不征收房产税有着密切的因果关系。房价上涨的具体原因主要有:住宅用地供给不足,寡头垄断“招、拍、挂”土地和开发商囤地导致涨价,地方政府房地产财政推动房价上涨,以及房产低持有成本需求导致的房价上涨等。

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    Abstract

    After having experienced the rise of land,housing sale and its price by turns,the realty industry started to fall into valley from the fourth quarter of 2008 to the first quarter of 2009;But,from the second quarter of 2009,the price of land and housing started to rise,until the end of second quarter,the sales growth slowed down. The primary causes which formed China’s high house price are that the supplies were relatively smaller than the demands,this was concerned in the administration and planned control of housing construction land supply,in the government oligopoly in land supply market,in the local government’s real estate finance which the land incomes for several dozens years were made one-off settlement of revenue and expenditure,as well as the housing was not levied the property tax. The concrete reasons of house price rise mainly have:The housing land supplies were insufficient,the oligopoly made “bidding,auction,shingle hanging” lands and the developers’ land regrate caused to rise in prices,the local government’s real estate finance impelled to rise in the house price,as well as the demands of low holding cost of real estate caused to rise in the house price,and so on.

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    作者简介
    周天勇:中共中央党校教授。
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