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谢伏瞻
    中国社会科学院学部委员,学部主席团主席,研究员,博士生导师。历任中国社会科学院院长、党组书记,国务院发展中心副主... 详情>>
蔡 昉
    中国社会科学院国家高端智库首席专家,学部委员,学部主席团秘书长,研究员,博士生导师。先后毕业于中国人民大学、中国... 详情>>
李培林
    男,汉族,出生于1955年5月,山东济南人,博士,研究员,全国人民代表大会社会建设委员会副主任委员,中国社会科学... 详情>>

    2009年上海证券市场回顾分析与2010年展望

    摘要

    2009年中国各项宏观经济指标明显好转,上市公司盈利触底回升。整体上,2009年A股市场呈现暴涨暴跌的运行格局。在国内外经济复苏的预期和极度宽松的流动性的推动下,2009年上证综指从年初1935。50点上涨至8月4日的最高点3478。01点,前7个月中国A股市场走出了单边上涨行情,上涨幅度接近80%,领跑全球股市。8月初则在市场扩容加速、信贷政策微调预期等因素影响下,A股市场展开快速调整。影响未来证券市场走势的主要因素包括,海外主要经济体能否企稳复苏,中国经济复苏的进程是否较乐观,宏观经济政策如何保持稳定性和连续性,当然市场扩容的压力也不容小视。

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    Abstract

    In 2009,China’s each macro-economic indicator has obviously changed for the better,and the profits of listed companies have touched ground and rise. In the whole,in 2009,A-stock market presents the operation pattern which rises and falls suddenly and sharply. Under the impetus of domestic and foreign economic resurgence anticipation and of extreme loose mobility,in 2009 the combined share index of Shanghai stock exchange has risen from 1935.50 points at the beginning of the year to the peak 3478.01 points on the 4th of August;in the first seven months,China’s Astock market had went out the unilateral rising market,and the rising scope was close to 80%,which was pacemaker in the global stock market. At the beginning of August,under the influence of market expansion acceleration and of anticipated credit policy readjustment etc.,A-stock market carried on quick adjusting. The primary factors which influence the stock market trend in the future include that,whether can the overseas main economic bodies stabilize and recover,whether is the progression of Chinese economic resurgence optimistic,how can the macroeconomic policy maintain the stability and the continuity,certainly the pressure of market expansion does not allow to be looked down upon.

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    作者简介
    吴谦:
    朱平芳:
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