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谢伏瞻
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李培林
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    2009~2010年中国资本市场运行分析与预测

    摘要

    2009年资本市场的特点表现为:股票市场基本保持向上走势、上市公司业绩出现回升走势、投资者信心有所增强,债券市场指数出现回调、金融债券现券交易大幅增加、投资性机构减持债券资产。2010年,来自国内经济和政策调整方面的因素对市场的影响作用将有所加强。国内经济形势正在成为影响我国资本市场走势的主导性因素。市场对经济过热和通货膨胀的担忧增加等不利因素将会对市场继续上行增加压力。2010年,鉴于CPI走势将由负转正,在水、电、燃气、交通和农产品价格上行的背景下,央行有可能上调存贷款利率;同时,与2009年相比,资金面可能处于不太宽松的格局中,由此,债市和股市的走势都将受到约束。

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    Abstract

    In 2009,the characteristics of capital market are that,the stock market basically maintains the upward trend,the achievements of listed companies have the rise trend,the investors have confidence;the bond market index lowers,the cash bond transaction of financial bond has increased largely,and the investment organizations are reducing the holding of bond assets. In 2010,the influence of factors from the domestic economy and the policy readjustment to the market will strengthen. The domestic economic situation is becoming the dominant factor to affect China’s capital market trend. The disadvantage factors which the worry of market about the overheated economy and the inflation increases etc. will unceasingly increase the pressure to the market upward. In 2010,in view of the fact that the CPI trend will transfer from the negative into the positive,under the background that the price of water,electricity,fuel gas,transportation and farm produces rises,it is possible for the Central Bank to increase the rate of deposit and loan;At the same time,compared with the one in 2009,the fund will be not too loose possibly,thereby the trend of bond and stock markets will be restrained.

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    作者简介
    王国刚:
    张跃文:
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