改革开放以来的第三个经济中周期已经在2009年第一季度结束。从2009年第二季度开始,我国经济增长进入新一轮经济周期的扩张期,从而形成经济运行的V型反转态势。2009年下半年,GDP增长率将回到适度增长区间9%~10%,全年达到8。5%。2010年经济增长可能达到9。8%,但第二季度开始增速或逐渐回落,形成年内前高后低的态势。CPI从2009年第四季度开始脱离通货紧缩区间,进入新一轮物价上涨周期,预计2010年CPI上涨2。9%,处于适度范围,但物价上涨压力显著增加。
<<The third moderate economic cycle since the reform and opening had ended in the first quarter of 2009. From the second quarter of 2009,China’s economic growth has entered the expansion stage of a new round of economic cycle,thus has formed V-type reverse situation of economic operation. In the second half of 2009,the GDP growth rate will return to the moderate growth sector 9%-10%,and will reach 8.5% in the whole year. In 2010,the economic growth will possibly reach 9.8%,but will start speeding up or fall gradually in the second quarter to form situation of high speed initially and low later within the year. CPI starts separation from the deflation sector from the fourth quarter of 2009,and enters the new round of rise cycle in price;it is estimated that CPI will rise 2.9% in 2010,which will be in the moderate scope,but the inflationary force will increases obviously.
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