在模型模拟与实证分析相结合的基础上,分析和预测2009年和2010年我国经济发展趋势和面临的主要问题。发布了2009~2010年国民经济主要指标预测。对宏观经济形势分析显示:全球经济开始缓慢复苏,但国内经济增长的可持续性有待进一步加强,需要注意避免经济回升出现“过急”或“过缓”。在经济回升过程中要警惕通胀风险,认为一方面需求不足的供求格局没有改变,近期内尚不会发生明显的通货膨胀;另一方面应警惕经济回升过程中引发通货膨胀的多重因素。强调扩张性政策组合中需要进一步加强财政政策作用。
<<Based on the integration of model simulation and empirical analysis,the economic trend and the primal problems faced by China in 2009 and in 2010 are analyzed and forecasted. A forecast on the primary indicators for national economy from 2009 to 2010 is issued. An analysis on the macro-economic situation shows that,the slow global economic recovery is starting,but a sustainable domestic economic growth needs to strengthen further,and “act precipitately” or “excessively slow” in the business uptrend should be avoided. The inflation risk must be prevented in the process of business uptrend,and the forecast thought that,on the one hand,the supply and demand patterns which the demand is insufficient are not changed yet,and will not have obvious inflation in the near future;On the other hand,the multiple factors that cause the inflation should be paid attention in the process of business uptrend. The report stresses that the functions of financial policy should be strengthened further in the expansionary policy combination.
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