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谢伏瞻
    中国社会科学院学部委员,学部主席团主席,研究员,博士生导师。历任中国社会科学院院长、党组书记,国务院发展中心副主... 详情>>
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李培林
    男,汉族,出生于1955年5月,山东济南人,博士,研究员,全国人民代表大会社会建设委员会副主任委员,中国社会科学... 详情>>

    2009~2010年北京存量房买卖市场分析

    摘要

    北京二手房市场在经历2008年低迷调整后,在系列刺激政策助推下,2009年出现回暖、小阳春、井喷、量价高位盘整的交易火爆场面。消费者购房心态从“跟风”到“恐慌”。上半年主要从创造宽松购房环境入手,刺激购房需求,促房市快速发展来带动经济增长;下半年政策走向略有调整,针对上半年二手房的井喷、爆发成交后,下半年加强金融风险管理,房贷政策有所趋紧,抑制二套等投资性需求。

    2010年政策仍以支持自住和改善型购房发展为主,但对投资和投机需求政策会有所趋紧。预计2010年价格仍然会高位运行,交易活跃度有所降低,成交量低于2009年。

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    Abstract

    After the downturn in 2008,the secondary residential market in Beijing has gone through initial recovery,short boom,and adjustment at high level. The mindset of consumers also shifted from “following others” to “be panic”. In the first half of 2009,market environment was very favorable for home buyers. Housing demand was stimulated,so as to promote the rapid development of housing market and to spur the economic growth. In the second half of 2009,policies were slightly adjusted. Financial risk management was strengthened;mortgage policy was also tightened to curb investment demand such as second-home purchase.

    Property policies will continue to support self-living demand,as well as upgrading demand. However for investment and speculative demand,policies will be tightened somehow. It is estimated that property market will remain at high level,and the transaction volume will be less than that in 2009.

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    作者简介
    宫萍:宫萍,现任北京中原房地产经纪有限公司三级市场部副总经理,并同时兼任北京房地产中介行业协会监事一职。
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