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谢伏瞻
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    2008~2009年北京存量房买卖市场分析

    摘要

    2008年,存量房买卖市场低迷,成交量8年首降。2008上半年消费者期待奥运会后房价回归而持币观望,价格涨幅走缓;下半年金融危机加剧消费者观望,房价四年来首降。政府出台系列利好政策如降息、税费减免等,促楼市回暖。

    2009年,宽松交易环境,系列利好政策延续作用,将促楼市进一步回暖。2009上半年累积的购房需求有望集聚暴发,成交量回升,但房价仍将继续探底;下半年成交量保持平稳,房价在探底后趋稳发展。

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    Abstract

    In 2008,the transaction of secondary housing in Beijing was in low level with the first Y-o-Y decrease in terms of transaction volume of the past 8 years. In the first half year of 2008,the consumers generally had a wait-to-see attitude for the expectation of price drop after the Olympic Games,which led to a slow increase of housing price. In the second half year of 2008,the wait-to-see attitude was exaggerated by the global financial crisis,and the housing price experienced the first drop for the past 4 years. In this account,the governments issued a series of favorable policies,such as decreasing interest rate,reduce or exemption of related tax and fee,in order to stimulate market rebound.

    In 2009,the secondary market is undergoing further rebound with the sustain impacts of loose transaction environment and successive favorable policies. It is estimated that the transaction volume in the first half year of 2009 would go up due to the release of accumulated demands. However,the transaction price would continue to drop. In the second half year of 2009,the transaction volume would remain stable and the price would gradually bottom up for a stable tendency.

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    作者简介
    宫萍:宫萍,北京中原房地产经纪有限公司三级市场部副总经理,主持三级市场部综合服务中心的整体建设工作,具体包括品牌策划及营销、市场研究与媒体关系、客户服务、风险管理及金融按揭服务等,并同时兼任北京房地产中介行业协会监事。
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