中国经济长期向好的基本格局并未改变,美国经济解困尚需中国合作,使人民币“汇改”以来的“保尔森效应”在奥巴马时代仍将存续。但是,金融海啸所释放出的震荡,却使“保尔森效应”大打折扣。由于中国经济防火墙的客观存在,美国金融海啸对中国经济的影响,是从中国实体经济领域逐步向中国金融部门传导的。聚焦于2007年与2008年“保尔森效应”对中国房价的影响,我们可以发现,在此次金融危机中,中国房地产发展呈现的是福祸相依的局面——机遇与压力共存。若能从过往的经济发展历程中汲取经验,着力培育和打造中国房地产市场的“稳压器”——房屋租控制,同时关注明、后两年中热钱可能利用“保尔森效应”给中国商业房地产带来的冲击,将对中国房地产摆脱困境、健康发展产生积极而长远的影响。
<<Two reasons will make “Paulson Effect” which was from the time of reform of RMB exchange rate system persistent in the Obama era. One reason is the basic configuration and development trend of China’s economy remaining unchanged;the other is,in order to in turning from crisis to recover,America needs the cooperation with China. But this financial tsunami has made “Paulson Effect” a great discount. Because of three China’s economy firewalls,the financial tsunami influences China’s economy mainly from real economy to financial institutions step by step. If we focus on the relationship between the “Paulson Effect” and China’s real-estate prices in 2007 and 2008,we can find that China’s real-estate development presents a kind of mixed blessing status—opportunities coexisting with pressures. If we can draw lessons from those passed financial turmoil,meanwhile make great efforts to cultivate Rent-Control System suitable for market operation,these will benefit for China’s Real-estate Development in the long run.
<<