您好,欢迎来到皮书数据库!
热点推荐: 双循环
更多>> 课题组动态
更多>> 皮书作者
谢伏瞻
    中国社会科学院学部委员,学部主席团主席,研究员,博士生导师。历任中国社会科学院院长、党组书记,国务院发展中心副主... 详情>>
蔡 昉
    中国社会科学院国家高端智库首席专家,学部委员,学部主席团秘书长,研究员,博士生导师。先后毕业于中国人民大学、中国... 详情>>
李培林
    男,汉族,出生于1955年5月,山东济南人,博士,研究员,全国人民代表大会社会建设委员会副主任委员,中国社会科学... 详情>>

    河南省人口结构变动的特征与趋势研究

    摘要

    随着人口自然增长率持续下降和年龄较轻、文化程度较高的劳动人口持续向沿海发达地区和大中城市输出,河南省人口结构出现了一系列新的变化。第一,劳动人口数量开始下降。2009年出现劳动人口负增长的历史拐点,劳动人口绝对数量和占比呈现双下降趋势。第二,劳动人口年龄逐渐增加。劳动人口年龄中位数由2000年的34。6岁增加到了2010年的37。9岁,15~39岁劳动人口比重下降3。8个百分点。第三,人口抚养系数趋于上升。2012年人口抚养系数为42。8%,比2010年上升了1。2个百分点,比全国水平高出6。62个百分点。65岁及以上人口占比达到8。8%,进入老龄化社会。农村人口老龄化程度明显高于城镇。第四,常住人口文化程度与全国平均水平的差距扩大。省内高学历人口流失严重,常住人口文化程度虽然有所提高,但与全国平均水平的差距仍在扩大。上述分析表明,河南省人口增长过快的趋势已经扭转,多年来对经济发展做出了巨大贡献的人口红利正在消失,人口老龄化、高素质人口过度流失等问题成为未来经济社会发展必须面对的重大问题。保持河南省经济社会的健康稳定发展,必须积极应对人口结构变化带来的一系列挑战。

    <<
    >>

    Abstract

    With the continuous decline of natural population growth rate and the outflow of young and well-educated workforce from Henan province to more developed areas,new changes have emerged in Henan’s population structure.First,the number of workforce has started to decline.Negative growth in workforce first occurred in 2009.Since then,both the absolute number of workforce and its proportion in total population have declined.Second,the age of work force has increased gradually.The median age of workforce has increased from 34.6 in 2000 to 37.9 in 2010.At the same time,the proportion of workforce aged between 15 and 39 has decreased by 3.8 percent.Third,the dependency ratio of population tends to rise.In 2012 the dependency ratio of Henan province is 42.8%,which is 1.2 percent higher than that in 2010 and 6.62 percent higher than that of national level in 2012.With the population aged 65 or over accounting for 8.8 percent,Henan has entered an ageing society.Moreover,ageing problem is severer in rural area than in urban.Fourth,the gap of educational level between Henan and national average level has been enlarged.Though the educational level of residents has increased generally,the outflow of highly-educated population has continued to enlarge the gap.In summary,the rapid population growth trend in Henan province has shifted.The demographic dividend,which has made a great contribution to economic development over years,has been disappearing.The ageing problem and the loss of highly-qualified population have become major problems in future development.In order to sustain the economic and social development of Henan province,it is crucial to rise to these population challenges.

    <<
    >>
    作者简介
    郜俊玲:
    刘云:
    耿德建:
    <<
    >>
    相关报告