2013年,在外部条件恶化和国内供给趋紧的共同作用下,拉美和加勒比国家经济形势继续呈现出增长缓慢和结构不良的双重特征。地区间增长并不平衡,国内生产总值仅增长2。6%,人均国内生产总值仅增长1。6%。从地区总体来看,主要新兴大国巴西和墨西哥经济增长乏力,次地区间增长不平衡;尽管失业率小幅下降,但就业机会增长减缓;通货膨胀整体上行,政策挑战加剧;经常账户平衡恶化,资本账户构成发生变化,对外部储蓄依赖加强;国际储备停滞不前。此外,制约拉美和加勒比国家经济增长的长期结构性因素依然存在。为应对经济降温,拉美和加勒比国家运用反周期政策调整财政目标,运用货币政策和宏观审慎政策维持内需,稳定国内金融系统和抵消国际市场变化对本国经济的影响。在该背景下,若2014年外部需求缓慢恢复,预计拉美和加勒比国家经济增长将逐步回弹,但下行风险犹存。
<<In 2013,Latin American and the Caribbean were featured by economic slow-down and ill-structured problems. The GDP growth rate was only 2.6%,and per capita GDP increased by only 1.6%. Brazil and Mexico,the most important economies in the region,showed a sluggish economic performance. Although unemployment dropped slightly,job creation slowed down. There were increased inflation pressure,worsening current account balance,rising reliance on the external savings and stagnation of international reserves. The structural factors still restricted regional economies. As a response to economic slowdown,regional economies took counter-cyclical policies to boost domestic demand,stabilize the domestic financial system and offset impacts from the international market. In 2014,the region is expected to gain a moderate economic rebound,but downside risks will remain.
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