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谢伏瞻
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李培林
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    中国影子银行体系:规模、风险与监管——非传统信贷融资的视角

    摘要

    影子银行是一个涉及产品、机构和市场的动态而复杂的三维体系,通常泛指传统商业银行体系之外的信用主体和业务活动,其最为基本的功能是期限转换、流动性转换以及信用风险转换。国内研究对影子银行的界定形成“监管说”、“风险说”和“非传统信用说”三个框架。本研究基于非传统信用的视角,估算中国的广义影子银行体系规模约为27万亿元,占银行业全部资产的比重约为19%。然而,影子银行体系的规模仅仅是中国金融体系系统性风险的一个层面。更为重要的是,在银行主导的金融体系内银行体系内部的非传统信用扩张机制(影子银行业务)是金融系统性风险累积的重要原因。虽然影子银行体系发展具有合理性和创新性,但也凸显出中国金融体系的体制机制弊端。目前,我国金融当局对影子银行体系的监管整体有效,但监管政策的针对性、完备性和可预期性仍有待提高,未来在继续鼓励和规范影子银行体系的发展的同时,坚决守住不发生区域性和系统性金融风险的底线,并深化中国金融体制改革。

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    Abstract

    Shadow banking system is a dynamic and complex three-dimensional institution combining products,institutions and markets. It broadly refers to the credit intermediation involving entities and activities outside the regular banking system. Its most basic function is the maturity transformation,liquidity transformation and credit risk transformation. There are three research frameworks of shadow banking in domestic study,which are based on “shadow banking regulation”,“shadow banking risk” and “non-traditional credit” respectively. Based on the non-traditional credit perspective,this study estimates that the scale of broad shadow banking system in China is about 27 trillion yuan,accounting for about 19% of the total assets of the banking industry. However,the scale of shadow banking system is just one aspect of financial system risk in China. More importantly,the non-traditional credit expansion mechanism of the banking system itself (shadow banking business) is a critical factor of the risk accumulation in financial system. Although the development of the shadow banking system is reasonable and innovative,it also highlights the drawbacks of the financial system in China. At present,the supervision of the shadow banking system is overall effective,but the relevance,completeness and predictability of the regulatory policy are still to be improved. We should continue to encourage and regulate the shadow banking system,prevent the regional and systemic financial risk,and deepen the reform of the financial system in China.

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    作者简介
    胡滨:胡滨,法学博士,研究员,中国社会科学院金融研究所副所长,金融法律与金融监管研究基地主任,主要研究领域为金融监管、金融法治以及资产证券化等。
    郑联盛:郑联盛,经济学博士,中国社会科学院金融研究所法与金融研究室助理研究员,金融法律与金融监管研究基地副主任,主要研究领域为金融监管、金融创新以及宏观经济等。
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