本文利用狭义货币、广义货币、国内信贷与GDP的比率来衡量流动性过剩程度,发现在美日等发达国家,以及中国、中国台湾、中国香港、韩国等东亚新兴市场经济体,均存在一定程度的流动性过剩。发达国家流动性过剩的根源是实施了以低利率为特征的宽松货币政策,而新兴市场经济体流动性过剩的根源是外汇储备增加导致基础货币发行增加。流动性的国际传导刻画了当前中心-外围国际货币体系的特征。流动性过剩已经造成全球范围内的资产价格泡沫,并可能引发未来的全面通货膨胀。一旦流动性过剩发生逆转,将会给世界经济和全球金融体系造成严重负面冲击。
<<This paper use narrow money to GDP ratio,broad money to GDP ratio,and domestic credit to GDP ratio to measure the extent of excess liquidity,which concludes that there is excess liquidity in the developed countries such as United States and Japan,and in the emerging market economies such as China,Taiwan,Hong Kong,and South Korea.The roots of excess liquidity in developed counties lie in that those governments applied loose monetary policies in which low interest rates played an important role.The roots of excess liquidity in emerging market economies are the increase of base money caused by the accumulation of foreign exchange reserves.The international transfer mechanism of liquidity depicts the characteristics of current center periphery international monetary system.Excess liquidity has already caused the asset bubbles over the world,and maybe cause the high inflation in the future.Once the excess liquidity reverses to liquidity crunch,the world economy and financial system will face serious negative impact.
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