安倍经济学“第一支箭”出台后,从日本银行的政策路径看,长期利率保持极低水平,市场及经济主体的预期开始转变,但金融机构资产配置再平衡效应并未实现。在日本经济长期结构性难题和制度性约束下,仅依靠宽松的货币政策恐无法解决长期通货紧缩的难题。在货币政策执行过程中,主要面临日元贬值对物价的负面作用、央行大量增持国债或导致财政赤字货币化风险、物价上升与工资水平降低、宽松政策退出风险等课题。为抵消消费税增税后的经济下滑风险,2014年日本银行或将进一步采取宽松措施,推动物价上涨。
<<After the first arrow of Abenomics was approved,judging from the policy path of Japanese bank,long-term interest rates remain extremely low levels,economic agents’ expectation becomes changing,but the asset rebalance effect has not been realized. Japanese economy has long-term structural problem and institutional restriction,so deflation can not be solved only depending on easing monetary policy. Monetary policy is facing some issues,such as depreciation of Yen brings negative effects on prices,BOJ marginally increases bonds holdings may be cause monetization of fiscal deficits,problem between rising prices and lower wages,risk of exit from easing policy. In order to offset the economic downtown risk from increasing consumption tax,in 2014,BOJ will take further easing policy to push the prices up.
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