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    2013~2014年北京存量房市场分析

    摘要

    北京房地产市场继2012年筑底复苏后,2013年持续升温。2013年调控政策持续且力度不断加强,从“新国五条”“新国六条”再到京版“国五条细则”、7~8月份房地产调控向长效机制转变的“传闻”、10月北京住建委发布“京七条”,直至11月三中全会后开始的一、二线城市调控再收紧,在一系列强劲政策压力背景下,刚性购房需求仍活跃难当,全年存量房成交量价同比均现上涨,涨幅分别为14%和22%。存量房成交近九成为首次置业的刚性需求和改善性刚性需求,投资人群已基本被挤出,刚需的庞大群体助推2013年北京存量房市场持续升温。北京租赁市场需求旺盛,输入型大都市的特征决定了大量外来人口对北京租赁市场强有力的支撑,总体呈现上升趋势。

    量价在持续一年多的上涨后,市场势必要理性回归。2014年房地产市场将在资金流动性偏紧背景下量价增速回落,房地产逐渐回归到市场与保障的双轨制,调控政策将以房产税等市场调节手段代替行政干预手段。

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    Abstract

    After bottoming recovery in 2012,Beijing’s real estate market continues to heat up in 2013.

    Beijing Real estate market regulation policies have been strictly implemented and strengthening of 2013,the new “country five”,the new “country six” and then to Beijing Edition “country five rules ”,July-August real estate regulatory “hearsay” of changes to long-term mechanism,in October 2013,Beijing Municipal Commission of Housing and Urban-rural Development issued a regulation of “seven”,until November after the Third Session,the property market regulation of the first and second-tier cities began to tighten again.Under the background of a series of strong property control policies pressure,rigid housing demand is still active,The annual trading volume and price of the housing market turnover was rising up,increasing 14% and 22%,respectively.

    Nearly ninety percent out of housing trading were the rigid demand coming from first-time home buyers and the rigid demand coming from home changer,investment group has been largely extrusion,the huge group of rigid demand pushed Beijing real estate market continue to heat up in 2013.

    There is great demand in Beijing rental market,The characteristics of the imported metropolis decide the strong support coming from A large number of migrant population in Beijing rental market,the overall is trend upward.

    Volume and price in more than a year after continuing to rise,the market is bound to return to the rational,2014 real estate market will decline in volume and price growth,under the backdrop of tight liquidity,real estate market is gradually returning to the track system and security,policy will be dominated by market more than administrative intervention measures.

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    作者简介
    靳瑞欣:靳瑞欣,中原地产研究部经理。
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