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    2013年度澳门经济运行情况观察

    摘要

    本文重点对2013年澳门宏观经济环境以及主要行业发展情况进行较深入的分析,并对2014年澳门宏观经济环境进行了预测。

    虽然2013年受美国量化宽松政策可能提前退场消息的影响,全球经济陷入不确定性,但是基本上全球两大经济体美国经济缓慢复苏、欧盟经济触底回升。2013年澳门经济增长平稳,预料全年GDP有10%的增长(2013年第四季度及全年GDP3月中旬以后公布)。

    展望2014年,本澳经济基本面并没有太大改变,笔者预计2014年博彩旅游业的稳步发展也将带动其他行业稳健、持续发展,不过通胀压力和人力资源供求矛盾的困扰也将会持续。按往年本地生产总值建立指数预测模型推算,保守预计2014年GDP增长速度为10%。

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    Abstract

    This article mainly analyses Macau’s macro-economic environment and development of its principal industries in 2013,and attempts to forecast the macro-economic situation of the following year.

    Although the global economy became uncertain as a result of a possible early end to the quantitative easing programme in the US,the economic recovery of the US remained slow,while the recession in the EU had reached its bottom. Macau’s economic growth was steady in 2013,and is expected to have a 10% GDP growth for the entire year (GDP figures for the 4th quarter and the entire year of 2013 are due to be published after mid-March).

    Looking ahead to 2014,the economy of Macau should not experience too many changes. It is expected that a steady development of the gaming and tourism sectors would lead a stable and sustained development of other sectors,although inflation and conflicts between the supply and demand of human resources would prevail. By construction of a model which is based on past economic performance figures,it is expected that,in conservative terms,that the GDP would grow by 10% in 2014.

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    作者简介
    柳智毅:柳智毅,管理学博士,澳门经济学会理事长,研究方向为澳门经济、澳门人力资源开发与管理。
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