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谢伏瞻
    中国社会科学院学部委员,学部主席团主席,研究员,博士生导师。历任中国社会科学院院长、党组书记,国务院发展中心副主... 详情>>
蔡 昉
    中国社会科学院国家高端智库首席专家,学部委员,学部主席团秘书长,研究员,博士生导师。先后毕业于中国人民大学、中国... 详情>>
李培林
    男,汉族,出生于1955年5月,山东济南人,博士,研究员,全国人民代表大会社会建设委员会副主任委员,中国社会科学... 详情>>

    中国经济形势分析与预测——2014年春季报告

    摘要

    本篇首先是2013年中国经济回顾与2014年预测,然后探讨了宏观调控要更加突出就业优先,适当容忍经济增速下限的下移,并对2014年宏观调控政策提出建议,分别是稳增长两大对策:推进可持续型的基础设施和新型城镇化建设,大力发展具有高附加值的现代服务业和高端制造业。 <<
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    Abstract

    In 2013,China’s macro-economy run smoothly,the industrial structure developed in trend of optimization,the investment performed at a lower rate,and the companies benefit directed to stabilization;at the same time,the prices remained stable while the liquidity became tight in China;besides,the external demand recovered feebly,and the international payments tended to balance. However,in 2014,constrained by excess capacity,debt risk and other issues,China’s investment growth in the fixed assets would slow down. Although consumption of China remain growing steadily,it will be hard to become the dominant factor in stimulating economy. And in export,the net value of trade in goods and services will be further reduced.Over more than three decades,China enjoyed a rapid average GDP growth at nearly 10%,having been the second economy already. But now,China is undergoing an economic shifting period from “structural accelerating” to “structural decelerating”. In 2014 and the coming phases,China’s economy will run at the rate of about 7.5%,which is lower than that of the past more than three decades. According to prediction,in 2014,the rate of China’s economic growth will reach 7.4%,which is slightly lower over the last year.

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    作者简介
    “中国经济形势分析与预测”课题组:课题总负责人:李扬;执行负责人:李平、李雪松、张平;执笔:李雪松、张涛、李军、樊明太、娄峰、王文波;课题组成员:李文军、张延群、刘强、蒋金荷、刘生龙、万相昱等。
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