本文从人口、预算约束、政策环境三个因素综合分析了导致中国药品需求增长的原因。进入21世纪以来的十余年,中国药品市场迅速扩容归因于我国人口的迅速老龄化、居民收入的快速增长以及医疗保险制度的完善。到2020年,我国人口老龄化进一步深化,经济发展继续带动居民收入保持较高速度增长,公共财政对医药事业的投入进一步加大,这些因素都保证了未来药品需求的继续扩张。到2020年,中国的药品市场规模将超过2万亿元,中药市场规模有望突破9000亿元。
<<This paper investigates the factors that drive the demand for medicine in China from three aspects:population,budget constraints and policy background.The prompt expansion of Chinese medicine market in this century can be attributed to the aging of population,the growth of residents’ income and the implementation of healthcare system.Up to 2020,the demand for medicine will continue to expand. The reasons are threefold:the aggravation of the aging population problem,a high growth rate of residents’ income due to economic development,as well as an increasing amount of public finance invested in medical career. In 2020,the scale of China’s drag market will exceed two thousand billions,and that of traditional Chinese medicine market will probably surpass 900 billions.
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