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谢伏瞻
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李培林
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    城市天然气地下管线功能失效型事故风险评估方法研究

    摘要

    城市地下管线尤其是天然气管线安全逐渐成为全国大中城市所共同关注的重点。目前国内对于其风险评估的研究多集中于天然气管线的泄漏、火灾、爆炸等可造成恶性后果方面,而对于功能失效型事故的风险评估则鲜有文献报道。应用PSR模型,分别从燃气地下管线系统的“压力”“状态”和“响应”三个方面对其进行风险评价指标建模。将评估样本预先制定类别,应用支持向量机理论对分类过的样本进行研究,构建分类模型,再将样本的分类类别值对应到样本的风险评估等级,从而实现评估。

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    Abstract

    Recent years,the safety of urban gas underground pipelines system becomes focous in many megapolises. However,the research on the assessment of urban underground pipeline systems is focoused on the serious accidents,such as leakage,fire or explosion for gas underground pipelines. There are few papers on the assessment of accidents of functional invalidation for urban gas underground pipeline systems. Using PSR model,the index system of hazard assessment was established by three aspects,namely the “pressure”,“status” and “response” of gas underground pipeline system. The assessment samples were classified firstly,then studied by the Support Vector Machine,and the classifying model was established. The samples that would be assessed were classified by the classifying model mentioned above. The class values of the samples classified were mapped to the hazard grade,which the assessment could be accomplished.

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    作者简介
    邓楠:邓楠,北京城市系统工程研究中心助理研究员,博士,研究方向:城市公共设施安全管理;
    刘克会:刘克会,北京城市系统工程研究中心城市运行研究部主任,副研究员,研究方向:城市运行与管理、城市公共设施安全管理。
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