本文基于扩展的C-D生产函数,从人口红利的视角对中国1996~2010年的产业结构变迁、劳动力供给与经济增长之间的关系进行了实证研究。结果显示:地区间的人口年龄结构存在明显差异,短期的经济增长率变化与人口抚养比关联性不大,而长期的居民人均收入水平与人口总抚养比呈负相关关系。从产业结构来看,第一产业与经济增长呈负相关关系,但第一产业对中西部地区经济增长的贡献度远大于东部地区,第三产业则相反。而东部地区物质资本对经济增长的贡献度远高于中西部地区,同时劳动力的增长率也大于中西部地区。其政策含义是:积极缩小地区间人力资本差距,进一步完善人口政策和劳动力市场体系,促进区域间资源的合理配置,实现经济的均衡发展。
<<Based on the C-D production function,from the view of demographic dividend,this paper offers an empirical study of industrial structure,the labor supply and economic growth in China from 1996 to 2010.The results show:there are significant differences in the regional population age structure.In the short term,changes in economic growth rates and population dependency ratio have no correlation,and in the long run,the income levels per capita are negatively related with population dependency ratio. As for the industrial structure,the first industry is negatively related with economic growth,but the contribution of the first industry to the central and western economic growth is much larger than that to the eastern part.While the material capital contribution of the eastern region to the economic growth is apparently larger than that of the centeral and western region.At the same time,the rate of labor force growth in the eastern area is also larger than the central and western areas.The policy implication is to actively narrow the human capital gap between regions,to further improve the population policy and labor market system,to promote the level of regional public resource configuration,and to achieve balanced development of regional economy.
<<