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谢伏瞻
    中国社会科学院学部委员,学部主席团主席,研究员,博士生导师。历任中国社会科学院院长、党组书记,国务院发展中心副主... 详情>>
蔡 昉
    中国社会科学院国家高端智库首席专家,学部委员,学部主席团秘书长,研究员,博士生导师。先后毕业于中国人民大学、中国... 详情>>
李培林
    男,汉族,出生于1955年5月,山东济南人,博士,研究员,全国人民代表大会社会建设委员会副主任委员,中国社会科学... 详情>>

    在全面深化改革中创新社会治理——2013~2014年中国社会形势分析与预测

    摘要

    2013年,中国进一步踏入改革深水区。总体而言,调结构、稳增长、促发展的一系列政策初见成效,经济增速企稳,就业形势呈现出总需求略大于总供给的积极趋势,城镇化水平有望超过54%。义务教育进一步均衡发展,大学招生向中西部地区倾斜。政府职能加速转变,社会组织将在未来大幅增长。社会保险参保人数趋于上升。但发展的不平衡、不可持续问题仍然存在。从2013年前三季度统计数据看,城乡居民收入增速放缓。食品价格与住房价格的攀升,影响了普通民众的消费生活,延缓了农民工的市民化进程。未来很长一个历史时期,都会出现大学毕业生就业难的问题——结构性失业现象会长期存在。在老龄化影响下,养老问题会越来越突出。由环境恶化引起的群体性事件快速增加,某些地区发生的暴力恐怖事件影响了全社会的安全感。所以,对2014年这个改革年来说,继续把控好宏观调控的力度、进度和方向,在保障和改善民生上稳定做出努力,具有非常重大的现实意义。“教育梦”和“就业梦”是每一个中国人的主要梦想。要在推进户籍制度改革中要统筹相关政策。对于“单独”放开二胎政策的实施,需要防止人口规模反弹。要在保护农民利益的前提下稳妥推进农村土地与住宅制度改革。而最关键的任务,则是大力创新社会治理方式,促进社会的和谐稳定。

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    Abstract

    "In 2013, China has stepped into a crucial stage of social and economic reform. Facing complex and volatile international situation, coupled with complicated social problems at the domestic level, the third Plenary Session of the 18th Central Committee of the Communist Party of China (CPC) approved ""the Decision on Major Issues Concerning Comprehensive Reform Plan of the CPC Central Committee"", which will stimulate social and economic development. In general, a series of policies have been implemented in order to facilitate structural adjustment, stabilize the momentum of development, and promote economic growth. Currently, the rate of economic growth has been stabilized; at the same time, labor demand exceeds labor supply, which has significant impact on the employment situation. With growing number of migrant workers in metropolitan areas, the urbanization rate will reach 54%. Government enforced policies to promote equality in education, and the percentage of college enrollment in central and western China has been increased. Reforms of the transformation of government function arrive at a new stage, accompanied by a period of dramatic increase of social organizations in the near future. The number of participants in social insurance programs keeps rising, with expanding social insurance coverage. However, problems of imbalanced and unsustainable development still exist. Statistics from the first three quarter show that the rate of income increase for urban and rural residents is decelerating, and the rate of increase for per capita disposable income of urban residents is lower than GDP growth rate. Under this background, food price and housing price keep rising, which has negative impact on consumption of average people. At the same time, soaring price show down of necessities show down the process of eitigenization of peasant workers. Due to the adjustment of industrial structure, for a long petimeriod in the future, new graduates will probably face large scale structural unemployment. As an aging society, old-age support will become an important social issue in the future. Disputes over pollution have been multiplied because of the deterioration of environment. And in some regions, civil disturbance has weakened sense of security. Therefore, in 2014, government should adjust the scope of macro-control, promote steady growth, and implement a comprehensive package plan oriented in the right towards correct direction. At the same time, more effort should be made to protect and improve people's well-being, which has a predominant impact on the effect of the current reform plan. It is very important to provide equal opportunity for every Chinese to fulfill the ""Education Dream"" and ""Employment Dream"". With prudent planning in the area of the hukou registration regulations, reform should be carried out in a balanced and comprehensive manner. With the new adjustment to the one-child policy, the new policy allows couples to have two children if one spouse is an only child. However, population structure and scale should be consistent with sustainable development. Reforms over rural land and housing regulation should move forward with full consideration of the protection of peasants' rights and interests. The overarching reform target should be set over the foundation of innovation of social governance, which is essential in maintaining social harmony and social stability." <<
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    作者简介
    李培林:男,汉族,出生于1955年5月,山东济南人,博士,研究员,全国人民代表大会社会建设委员会副主任委员,中国社会科学院原副院长、学部委员,俄罗斯科学院外籍院士。中国社会学会副会长、国家社会科学基金评审委员会委员、中国博士后科学基金评审专家、博士生导师。主要研究领域:发展社会学、组织社会学、工业社会学。获国家有突出贡献中青年专家、中华人民共和国国务院特殊津贴专家、百千万工程国家级人选、全国留学人员先进个人、“四个一批”人才、哲学社会科学领军人才等称号。主要研究成果:《村落的终结》(专著)、《社会结构转型——中国经济体制改革的社会学分析》(专著)、《和谐社会十讲》(专著)、《另一只看不见的手——社会结构转型》(专著)、《转型中的中国企业:国有企业组织创新论》(合著)、《新社会结构的生长点》(合著)、《社会冲突与阶级意识——当代中国社会矛盾问题研究》(合著)、《国有企业社会成本分析》(合著)、《中国社会发展报告》(主编)、《中国新时期阶级阶层报告》(主编)等。
    张翼:中国人民银行扬州市中心支行副科长、经济师。
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