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    香港经济形势分析与展望

    摘要

    2013年,仍然受制于不稳的外贸环境,但凭借相对强韧的内部需求,香港经济将维持温和增长。然而,各种不明朗因素继续困扰全球经济前景,包括美国债务上限及财政问题的争论仍有待解决、美联储的货币政策方向未明、欧元区主权债务风险挥之不去,以及部分新兴市场增长放缓等,都为全球经济前景蒙上阴影。幸而,香港经济继续受惠于良好的经济基本面和内地经济平稳较快增长所提供的支持,部分抵消了外围经济不稳所带来的影响。预料香港经济2013年全年可以温和增长2。5%~3。5%。通胀在2013年前三季度第三季度略为上升,但短期内的通胀上行风险应会较低。特区政府会密切留意物价走势,特别是通胀对低收入人士的影响。鉴于全球流动性泛滥及超低利率的环境未改,楼市泡沫风险依然不容忽视,特区政府推出一连串措施令楼市健康平稳发展,确保宏观经济和金融系统稳定。过去一年,内地和特区经济的关系在多项政策支持下续见深化。展望2014年,以上谈及的多种外围因素仍会影响香港的外贸表现。不过,内部经济稳健,加上内地经济持续发展所提供的机遇,将会继续为香港经济带来支持。

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    Abstract

    In 2013, Hong Kong's economy is still subject to unstable trading environment, but thanks to relatively robust domestic demand, it maintains a moderate pace of growth. However, various uncertainties continue to plague the global economic outlook, including the U.S.debate about the debt ceiling and financial issues which remain to be resolved, the unclear U.S.Federal Reserve's monetary policy direction, the euro-zone sovereign debt risk, as well as some emerging markets,slowdown. Fortunately, Hong Kong's economy continues to benefit from favorable economy, stable and rapid economic growth in the mainland, and partially offsets the external impact of economic instability. Hong Kong's economy is expected grow moderately at 2.5%-3.5 % this year. Inflation rises slightly in the third quarter, but the short-term risks of increase in inflation should be low.Hong Kong's government will closely monitor price developments, in particular the impact of inflation on low-income earners. Given the proliferation of global liquidity and low interest rates, the real estate bubble risks cannot be ignored. The Government introduced a series of measures for the stable development of the property market, ensuring macroeconomic and financial system stability. Over the past year, the relationship between the mainland and Hong Kong's economy continued to be deepened by a number of policies. In 2014, a variety of external factors mentioned above will affect Hong Kong's trade performance. However, internal economic stability, sustained economic development in the mainland will provide opportunities and continue to support the economy of Hong Kong. <<
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    作者简介
    陈李蔼伦:香港特别行政区政府财政司司长办公室,政府经济顾问。香港特别行政区政府财经事务局经济分析组。
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