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谢伏瞻
    中国社会科学院学部委员,学部主席团主席,研究员,博士生导师。历任中国社会科学院院长、党组书记,国务院发展中心副主... 详情>>
蔡 昉
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李培林
    男,汉族,出生于1955年5月,山东济南人,博士,研究员,全国人民代表大会社会建设委员会副主任委员,中国社会科学... 详情>>

    2013年我国外贸发展情况及2014年展望

    摘要

    2008年世界经济发生复合型危机,目前进入结构和模式调整与转变时期;新一轮科技、产业革命还在孕育之中,因而处在熊彼特超长周期过渡阶段。这些因素决定了世界经济增速处于低水平。我国宏观经济政策实行调结构、扩内需、推改革,等于主动放弃高增长。故我国对外贸易不仅受到世界经济制约,而且受到国内因素影响,在高利率等货币政策压迫下,随着经济增速放缓而趋缓。2014年,世界经济也许比2013年略显乐观,我国经济改革也将深入推进,一些积极因素将成为推动出口增长的主要动力。我国传统出口优势正在丧失,建议我国制定鼓励机械、汽车、装备制造业出口的政策,提升新一代信息产品出口水平,塑造新竞争优势,推动我国外贸发展进入新阶段。 <<
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    Abstract

    World economy has been entering the regulatory and transitional period of structure and mode since the 2008 world compound economic crisis. With the new technological and industrial revolution still in gestation, the economy is in the Schumpeter Super Long Cycle transitional phase. These factors determine that the world economic growth has maintained at a low level. China's macroeconomic policy has implemented structural adjustment, expansion of domestic demand, and the advancement of reform, which equals to the voluntary abandonment of high growth. Therefore, China's foreign trade is not only constrained by the world economy, but also by domestic factors, and slows down with the economic slowdown under the pressure of the monetary policy such as high interest rate, etc. In 2014, the world economy may be slightly better than in 2013, and China will continue promoting economic reform. These positive factors will become the main driving force of promoting export growth. China's traditional export advantage is being lost. We suggest making policies to encourage our machinery, automobile, equipment manufacturing exports, enhance the level of exports of the new generation of information products, create new competitive advantages, and push China's foreign trade development into a new stage. <<
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    作者简介
    陈凯杰:商务部政研室研究员
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