埃及剧变给以色列带来了极大的安全威胁,但迄今从埃及方面来看,未对以色列的安全带来实质性的影响。埃及穆尔西政府的务实政策和以色列的低调谨慎,使埃以和平得以继续维持,不仅对以色列的安全,而且对避免整个中东地区陷入更严重的冲突与混乱,都具有重要的积极意义。在阿拉伯世界传统大国伊拉克、叙利亚的实力削弱之际,埃及穆尔西政府希望借巴勒斯坦问题重振埃及在阿拉伯世界的强者地位,既继承了穆巴拉克政府对加沙实施封锁的政策,以稳定同以色列的关系,又适时调整了对巴勒斯坦内部法塔赫和哈马斯派别斗争的态度,倾向于增加对哈马斯的支持,而不像穆巴拉克时代将哈马斯看成是埃及的威胁和伊朗的代理人。埃及政策的调整对巴以问题产生了两个走向完全不同的影响:一方面,埃及积极斡旋以色列和哈马斯在加沙的冲突,避免了中东地区动荡局势的进一步恶化;另一方面,埃及积极推动巴勒斯坦内部两派的和解,为恢复巴以和谈制造了难题。
<<The upheaval in Egypt has brought a serious security threat to Israel,but has not so far produced substantial effects to Israel’s security.It maintained peace between Egypt and Israel that Morsi administration’s pragmatic policy to the peace treaty and Israel’s low-key and cautious to Egypt situation.That has an important positive significance not only to Israel’s security,but also to Middle East’s stability.In the wake of Arabia traditional powers declining,such as Iraq and Syria,Morsi hoped to rebuild Egypt’s strong position in the Middle East by taking advantage of the Palestinian question.In order to maintain the peace relation with Israel,Morsi administration continued the policy of blockade to Gaza that former president Mubarak had made,at the same time,Morsi adjusted the policy to Palestinian.Morsi’s new policy to Palestinian produced two contradictory results.On one hand,Morsi administration brokered ceasefire in Gaza,and avoided further deterioration of the situation in the Mideast.On the other hand,Egypt positively impelled the reconciliation between Fatah and Hamas to form a unit government,which would make a great problem to peace talks.
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