泰国人民民主联盟的反政府运动之所以会从“非暴力”蜕变为“暴力”,其原因在于“反他信”阵营难以通过合法方式遏止“他信-泰爱泰党”集团的东山再起,难以阻挡人民力量党通过修宪以重构“一党优势”格局的意图,难以对抗“挺他信”阵营的“选票民意”。本文指出,尽管在“反他信”阵营的政治围攻之下,“他信-泰爱泰党”集团再次受挫,失去执政地位,但是,如果新兴产业集团和农村贫民的政治利益得不到有效保障,那么随着“他信-泰爱泰党”集团的复兴,新一轮政治斗争将难以避免。“小党林立”格局、城乡差距问题以及经济危机压力,使得泰国的政治前景充满不确定性。
<<The anti-government movement which was led by People’s Alliance for Democracy (PAD) of Thailand,turned from “non-violence” to “violence” at last,because the “anti-Thaksin” camp could not contain “Thaksin-Thai Rak Thai party” group from staging to a comeback by using conventional means,could not prevent the People’s Power Party (PPP) from amending constitution in order to rebuilt the one-party dictatorship system,and could not withstand the “public opinion of ballot” of “pro-Thaksin” camp anymore. According the paper,although “Thaksin-Thai Rak Thai party” group was defeated by the “anti-Thaksin” camp again,and lost the ruling status,if the political interests of new industry class and peasant class can not be guaranteed,“Thaksin-Thai Rak Thai party” group will surely comeback and may lead to another turbulence. Multi-party system,rural-urban disparity and economic crisis,make the future of political situation of Thailand full of uncertainties.
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