2008年亚太地区的总体特点是麻烦不断,变数增多。从长期来看,影响最大的有三件事,分别是金融危机向实体经济的扩散、印度孟买发生的恐怖袭击,以及中国成功举办奥运会。除此之外,巴基斯坦、泰国的政局都出现了较大的动荡,尼泊尔的政治格局发生了重大变化,牛肉问题也在韩国政坛掀起了不小的风波。从国际安全与地区安全的角度看,非传统安全方面的挑战日益频繁,相对于传统安全问题,其重要性有显著上升。在过去一年中,亚太地区的总体政治安全形势并没有明显的恶化,但安全威胁呈现多样化和复杂化的态势,这对于各国政府的危机处理提出了更大的挑战。在此基础上,本文对亚太地区2009年的形势进行了展望。
<<The emerging of many a trouble and growing variables are general characters of the international situation in Asia-Pacific region in 2008. Three events are the most important from the long-term perspective:the spillover of financial crisis into real economy,the terror attacks in India’s Mumbai city,and China’s great success in hosting the Beijing Olympic game. At the same time,the political situation underwent a period of turmoil in Pakistan and Thailand,Nepal was in a process of political transformation,the issue of importing American beef led to political disturbance in Korea. When look from the perspective of international security and regional security,the challenges from non-traditional security issues became very frequent,and their importance were growing when compared with traditional security issues. The overall political and security situation remain steady in the past year,but the sources of security threat became more and more diversified and complex,this raises greater challenges to the government of this region in their ability of crisis management. In the end of this paper,we give some forecast about the international situation of Asia-Pacific region in the near future.
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