2010年,“红衫军”在曼谷举行大规模反政府示威集会,引发政府军警与“红衫军”的暴力冲突,酿成1992年以来最大规模的政治流血事件。本文指出,作为泰国2006年以来“反他信”与“挺他信”之争的重要组成部分,“红衫军”运动的形成与发展虽然依赖于新资本集团的资金支持,但其形成根源在于农民群体对“反他信”阵营忽视农村发展要求的强烈不满,以及对他信派系再次掌权后深化农村改革的迫切期望。因此,在泰国政府对农村发展问题做出实质性的改革举措之前,“红衫军”运动难以平息。由于泰国各派政治力量的妥协尚需时日,“红衫军”运动不会在短期内结束,甚至存在再次引发政治危机的可能。
<<In 2010,the Red Shirt held a mass anti-government demonstration in Bangkok,and caused a violent confrontation between the Red Shirt and the Army,which had become the most serious bloodshed since 1992.This paper points out that,though the Red Shirt Movement,which is an important component of the confliction between the Anti-Thaksin Camp and the Pro-Thaksin Camp since 2006,was very much depending on the financial support of Neo-capital Group;the root cause of this movement was that,the Farmers were strongly dissatisfied with the Anti-Thaksin Camp which has been ignoring the development of the rural area all along,and were urgently hoping that the Thaksin Clique could return to power and deepen the rural reform.The Red Shirt Movement will not subside only if the substantial acts would have been taken in the development and reform of rural.It will still need a time for the Anti-Thaksin Camp and the Pro-Thaksin Camp to reach a political compromise,so the Red Shirt Movement may keep active for a time,and even cause crises again.
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