进入21世纪以来,全球经常账户失衡迅速扩大,成为推动全球金融危机爆发的重要因素之一。危机后,全球经常账户失衡尽管显著改善,但其未来的演进存在不确定性。从储蓄投资缺口的角度来看,全球经常账户失衡的根源在于逆差国储蓄率的下降,以及顺差国储蓄率的上升。从实际有效汇率的角度来看,主要失衡国实际有效汇率的高估或低估也是导致全球经常账户失衡的重要因素。为实现全球经济再平衡,各主要失衡国都应努力缩小储蓄投资缺口,并推动实际有效汇率向均衡汇率方向运动。在全球经常账户再平衡过程中,各主要失衡国应努力沟通合作,避免陷入汇率战与贸易战。
<<The global current account imbalance exacerbated in the early of 2010s,which contributed to the burst of global financial crisis. Although the global imbalance was significantly corrected after the crisis,there are still uncertainties about its evolution in the future. From the perspective of saving investment gap,the root of global imbalance lies in the decline of saving rates in deficit countries,and the rise of saving rates in surplus countries. From the perspective of real effective exchange rate,the root of global imbalance lies in the overvaluation of deficit countries’ currencies and undervaluation of surplus countries’ currencies. To rebalance global current account,the major countries should try to mitigate the saving investment gap,and move the real effective exchange rates toward equilibrium levels. In the process of global rebalancing,the major countries should enhance communication and cooperation and avoid exchange rate wars and trade wars.
<<